RISK HEADLINES

Global Trade: Persistent Geo-Economic Risks

July 31, 2025

By mid-2025, world trade data show an increase in value, driven mainly by prices, while volumes remain sluggish. This apparent “recovery” masks fragility: growth depends on price dynamics and strong U.S. imports, while geo-economic risks (industrial policy, tariff uncertainty) persist. For...

Credit and Sector Downgrades: Stress Signals for the Real Economy

June 27, 2025

In June, major credit insurers downgraded multiple sectors and countries, citing geopolitical frictions, trade wars, persistent cost inflation (transport, energy), and political uncertainty. For businesses, consequences are immediate: tighter credit limits, higher factoring costs, demands for...

Cyber Risk: Shift to Data Theft Extortion

May 29, 2025

In the last few months, cyber risk indicators have worsened sharply. Sectoral reports showed record ransom payments, with a pivot from encryption to pure exfiltration: data theft is now the main lever. Threat groups are evolving fast (rebrands, double and multi-extortion tactics), often targeting...

Macro Risk: IMF Warnings on Growth and Trade Tensions

April 30, 2025

In April, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook highlighted downside risks, especially from escalating tariffs and potential tightening of financial conditions if markets abruptly reassess growth. For companies, this means higher risk premiums, narrower issuance windows, and compressed valuations....

U.S. Tariff Shock: Trade Fragmentation and Uncertainty

March 31, 2025

At the end of March, Washington announced new 25% tariffs on certain auto parts (effective early April), part of a broader trade strategy. For global businesses, the immediate effect is not just higher import costs but heightened legal and logistical uncertainty, with contract renegotiations,...

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