Global Trade: Persistent Geo-Economic Risks
Published on Thursday, July 31, 2025
By mid-2025, world trade data show an increase in value, driven mainly by prices, while volumes remain sluggish. This apparent “recovery” masks fragility: growth depends on price dynamics and strong U.S. imports, while geo-economic risks (industrial policy, tariff uncertainty) persist.
For companies, sales forecasts are more sensitive to price cycles, and supply chains remain exposed to chokepoints: maritime corridors (Red Sea, Panama Canal), congestion, and rising insurance costs. Procurement and logistics teams must maintain ready-to-activate alternative routes, secure flexible capacity contracts, and closely monitor transit times. Finance teams should separate value from volume scenarios and model potential price deflation in traded goods. Strategically, resilience must evolve into supply chain “plasticity”: redesigning networks (multi-hubs, regional dual sourcing) to reduce dependency on contested routes. Policy signals from the World Trade Organization justify enhanced monitoring and stronger engagement with customs and freight partners to secure operations for the second semester of 2025.
Depending on its business sector and the nature of its activities, your organization may be impacted, directly or indirectly, by this global risk over the coming years.
Whether you are a director, an executive or a manager, you may be wondering if your company is exposed to this global risk or other potential events. And if so, are you and your organization ready to face these challenges?
Should you need advice on the appropriate risk governance and enterprise risk management approach for your organization, please contact us.
Baldwin Global is an independent advisory group offering professional services, education and training in risk governance and enterprise risk management. We help our clients’ boards of directors and management teams attain their objectives by embedding sound risk oversight and management practices into their decision-making process to have a significant positive impact on their business.